Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AAVE prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 105.705863 122.373888 142.301498 168.333154 202.149669 245.664185 307.812378
2024-10-27 83.732413 102.725541 127.638505 164.014853 218.298231 301.242934 449.859005
2024-11-03 76.975173 99.096159 130.511514 181.306109 268.314401 429.131587 815.686933
2024-11-10 75.615669 101.898064 142.238260 214.773474 360.096173 703.443590 2030.989778
2024-11-17 67.962286 93.802598 135.150529 214.086142 388.005071 874.123222 3748.060340
2024-11-24 61.091542 85.752830 126.405775 207.517866 399.884756 1019.856102 6869.280740
2024-12-01 56.543331 80.728401 121.824800 207.705378 428.497387 1272.699342 19148.606021
2024-12-08 53.288733 77.365166 119.533788 211.937128 471.053771 1687.333482 209544.455389
2024-12-15 50.004683 73.540898 115.748545 211.819005 501.574177 2151.382091 NaN
2024-12-22 45.781440 67.677885 107.319528 198.960646 483.962316 2256.406716 NaN
2024-12-29 44.015807 65.944499 106.642423 204.689234 536.426798 3235.850850 NaN
2025-01-05 41.286959 62.245348 101.601192 198.315325 539.597263 3771.343136 NaN
2025-01-12 39.627563 60.843027 102.076676 209.633875 643.141794 8057.539529 NaN
2025-01-19 36.618634 56.695110 96.342295 202.737237 661.282147 12316.712710 NaN
2025-01-26 36.107131 57.152024 100.524094 226.403717 889.008705 180401.127999 NaN
2025-02-02 36.697854 59.793829 110.194133 273.647313 1470.547943 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 34.696285 57.007297 106.518669 272.644935 1637.754630 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 32.554430 53.729224 101.147635 263.252347 1687.293284 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 31.045276 51.623453 98.411243 263.518812 1898.383545 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 29.905986 50.181997 97.145569 269.562314 2276.733283 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 28.643587 48.366551 94.643886 269.393265 2574.912987 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 26.866617 45.324318 88.550732 251.101387 2355.155344 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 26.124750 44.456965 88.168536 259.224792 2941.463024 NaN NaN